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Fianna Fáil face D15 wipeout

Recent party surveys and canvassing returns from both Dublin 15 electoral areas for the local elections next month make very difficult reading for local Fianna Fáil party members. Based on information being collected by the various party activists all the indications are that the government party is likely to win only one of the nine county council seats available in Dublin 15.

Indeed if matters continue to disimprove the chances of them being completely whitewashed and winning no seats at all is a distinct possibility.

Fianna Fáil currently holds three of the eight seats in the area but two of their councillors - Brenda Clifford (Castleknock) and Margaret Richardson (Mulhuddart) are not contesting the election. The sole remaining party councillor, Mags Murray (who was actually elected last time out as a PD) is set to have a torrid time with both her party colleague Howard Mahony and the Green Party’s Roderic O’Gorman challenging her for the seat.

In Mulhuddart where the number of seats available have been increased from four to five, a recent survey by the Fine Gael party coupled with canvass reports indicates that the Labour Party is likely to take two seats (Michael O’Donovan and Patrick Nulty) with one each for the Socialist Party (Ruth Coppinger), Fine Gael (Kieran Dennison) and Sinn Féin (Paul Donnelly).

According to a Fianna Fáil source, “we expect to poll between 12% and 14% in Mulhuddart and though we have three candidates running we do not expect them to transfer well enough to get the fifth seat.”

Castleknock is more open. Here Joe Higgins (Socialist Party) is being tipped by all sides to top the poll with Peggy Hamill (Labour) taking the second seat and Eithne Loftus comfortably taking the third. A three way battle is expected for the final seat between Murray and Mahony for Fianna Fáil and O’Gorman for the Greens. While the odds are currently favouring Fianna Fáil, it is being pointed by the other parties that the two FF candidates do not have a good working relationship and may not transfer well.

Another worry being touted by canvassers is that tactical voters from other parties seeking to stop Fianna Fáil holding the seat may vote for O’Gorman when they realise that the other candidates are already safely home.

Over the past twenty years the fortunes of Fianna Fáil have been in constant decline in Dublin 15 particularly in relation to county council representation. Prior to the 1991 local elections, Fianna Fáil held four out of the seven seats in Dublin 15. In the 2004 election they won two out of eight.

Now it is predicted that they will only have one out of nine with the distinct possibility that come June 5th, the residents of Dublin 15 may have no representation at all from the biggest party in the country on Fingal County Council.

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